Lok Sabha Polls 2014 – Modi wave or a gimmick ?

High female voter turnout  this year!

High female voter turnout this year!

The third phase of voting is over with higher turnout around this time and the next phases are expected to see witness a similar trend . Does it mean, that a higher turnout of voters call for a change ? History suggests that a higher turnout in an assembly poll predominantly goes in favour of the ruling party but in the parliamentary elections it is a strong signal that people might have voted against anti-incumbency. BJP camp is enthusiastic and calling it a Modi wave.

Barring a few occasions, Delhi has always shown the entire country who will rule the country for the next five years. A historic jump in voters turnout is enough proof of anti-incumbency voting pattern through out the third phase of  polling where 93 critical parliamentary seats have gone into polls. Record number of voters, particularly first time voters, have enthusiastically stood in the line for long hours to exercise their franchise.

Aam Admi Party, led by Kejriwal has recently said that his decision to resign from the Delhi government was ill-timed as it gave the impression that he was running away from responsibility. This admission in the middle of the polls indicate that the party leadership is now acutely aware of their losing popular support and the momentum they achieved during the Delhi Assembly polls.

Ruling party Congress is abuzz and are not ready to buy the argument that high turnout means an indication of impending changes.  But the new voters, the women voters stood eagerly for long in the queue to express their anger of whatever against the candidate and the party. Statistics reveal that the third phase of voting has smashed records of all previous voting percentages and is a clear indicator that change of government is on the cards. All time high voting has touched across India and the trend might have polarized the voting at some of the pockets of Western Uttar Pradesh, specially in the areas of Muslim and Jats who were involved in a communal clash few months back. Muslim women have come out in large numbers in Muzaffarnagar to cast their votes. But question remains to be asked whom they have voted for?

Whatever reasons may be for the higher percentage of voting – it is an encouraging sign for democracy when large number of voters turn out to vote in an election. Higher voters turnout means more and more voters have become politicized. Congress argue that so-called Modi-wave has been manufactured by media and it is a hype created by the BJP who are spending crores of rupees in advertisement. But BJP alleges that people are sick of bad governance and the high percentage of voting is a reflection of their anger.

This year voting witnessed a new dimension; the gap between men and women voters has really narrowed down and both are equally coming out this time in large numbers and particularly the young ones are enthusiastic than ever before. All parties are optimistic that high turnout will go in their favour including AAP. It is a reality that BJP has a very little presence in southern states except in Karnataka but they still believe that this time around, there is going to be people’s Tsunami in their favour in the ballot in south as well. Congress too, on the other hand, is fragmented in southern state of A.P. where all other parties have grabbed the baton from the Congress.

Indications are well in favour of BJP when anti-BJP parties are already complaining of rigging fearing loss in the election. Let come 16 May when many pundits may be proved wrong because it is very very difficult to undermine the intelligence of Indian voters specially the young voters. The intensity and depth of participation in the voting is a critical indicator, specially in the cow belt, where a last minute change in caste politics can dramatically change the politicos of India.


Once aspiring writer, revisiting old passions after finally reaching the right side of sixty! A firm believer in Marxism and an atheist by choice!

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